Five key trends predicted for 2013
1. Samsung will invest in its own future
Right now, Samsung is the most dominant Android smart-phone
manufacturer. However, the company does not fully control or dictate the
directions or agenda of Google as it relates to Android. Because of
this, Samsung is dependent, to a degree, upon Google for future success.
In a quickly verticalizing industry, this is a point of concern for
Samsung. Samsung once invested in its own Bada operating system, but I
believe it will further invest in owning its own software platform in
order to fully unify its screen strategy. The most logical candidate is
the Tizen operating system Samsung has been working on but has yet to
release.
2. Microsoft will get into smart-phone hardware
Microsoft signaled its intent to be a PC hardware company when it
launched the Surface tablet. By doing so, Microsoft strained
relationships with its existing hardware partners and went down a path
that is hard to turn back from at this point. The next logical step is
for Microsoft to get into the smart-phone hardware business — or acquire
a company like Nokia or HTC — and begin controlling the hardware for
the Windows Phone platform. I believe Microsoft will officially get into
the smart-phone hardware game in 2013.
3. Apple will make a large investment in its supply chain
In the personal-computing landscape, Apple is more vertical than any
company right now. Others have some of the parts but have yet to go
fully vertical and show that they can execute as vertical companies.
Apple has already proved it is a well-oiled vertical machine, and I
believe the company will further invest in that strategy by using its
massive stockpile of cash to purchase key parts of its supply chain. The
main reason for this will be not only to maintain its hardware margins
but also to relieve many of the supply-chain bottlenecks that Apple
deals with on a yearly basis. These investments could be things like
owning a key display manufacturer, owning hardware-machining factories
and even investing or co-investing in a foundry to manufacture its own
semiconductors for all its computers.
4. Google will go fully vertical with Motorola
Samsung is Google’s largest partner, and in many of the same ways
that Samsung depends on Google, so too does Google depend on Samsung.
The reality is that Android would not have the market share it does
today without Samsung. So by Samsung investing more in its own future
with a software platform, Android will be weakened. The only logical
response is for Google to also officially go vertical with its Motorola
purchase, taking its hardware future into its own hands. Google can do
this by focusing Motorola on the high end with a Nexus-like strategy, or
it can focus on the lower end by going for more volume than margins. I
can see either scenario playing out
5. RIM will make a modest rebound but will eventually be acquired
To be entirely honest, I have some hope for RIM. I do think the
company will make a modest rebound in 2013 with the release of its
BlackBerry 10 devices. But to take back a significant share of the
handheld market, RIM will need help from someone else. It makes the most
sense in my mind for RIM to consolidate with a company that has the
right marketing and a solid hardware vision. Perhaps Samsung could
acquire RIM and make BlackBerry 10 its proprietary operating system if
Tizen doesn’t work out. Any number of the growing Asian OEMs that could
use better business platforms may show interest in RIM as well.
Social Media trends for 2011/2012
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